STA117 | Understanding of Statistical Techniques | Statistic

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Question 1 (30 marks)

The Following data is generated from Maldives National Bureau of Statistics

Tourists Arrival from January 2010 to December 2014

Years

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1

219,516

247,617

255,867

293,112

321,561

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2

163,116

200,350

202,201

246,555

279,952

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3

186,071

221,205

233,540

278,608

299,491

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4

223,214

262,161

266,417

306,927

303,853

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For the Above data,

 

a)

Explain the above data in detail. In your explanation, include

[5]

 

i) Overall Trend of the Tourist arrivals

 

 

ii) Compare the quarters and explain special cases if any

 

 

iii) Compare the years and explain the special case(s) if any

 

b)

Draw the graph of trend line and four quarter centered moving average line and a line with

 

seasonal variation eliminated

[15]

c)

Using centered moving average against time find a linear regression equation and forecast the

 

number of Tourists arrival in 2015

[10]


Question 2 (25 marks)

Passenger arrivals at Male’ international Airport from 1985 to 2014 is given as follows

  

Year

Arrivals

 

Year

Arrivals

 

Year

Arrivals

1985

121924

 

1995

372349

 

2005

513796

1986

124622

 

1996

400300

 

2006

734733

1987

142102

 

1997

447823

 

2007

833436

1988

170027

 

1998

468766

 

2008

857991

1989

178712

 

1999

512077

 

2009

831924

1990

217953

 

2000

539208

 

2010

1008743

1991

220720

 

2001

530434

 

2011

1128238

1992

273982

 

2002

557459

 

2012

1165695

1993

305071

 

2003

636377

 

2013

1363930

1994

349085

 

2004

711388

 

2014

1495338

 

 For the above data, an excel Output is created and the results are as follows (all arrival values are in (000).

Study the above output

 

a)

What is the equation of the regression line?

[3]

b)

What is the coefficient of determination?

[2]

c)

Prove by calculation that the standard error of estimate is 116.4451 (000)

[5]

d)

Using the regression equation, forecast the number of passengers arrival at Male International

 

Airport in 2015 and 2020. Comment your answer

[10]

e)

Comment on the correlation coefficient and the goodness of fit of this regression line

[5]

 

 Question 3 (30 marks)

a) Use the data in Question 2 to find mean, median, mode, range, standard deviation coefficient of variation and quartiles. [15] b) Write a statistical report about the passenger arrives in Male International Airport using the figures in the table and using your have calculated in part a). Your report should be between 200 to 250 words. [15]

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